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2004, 2006, 2008 - Musings of Unayok

2008 Oct 15

21:342004, 2006, 2008 

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Found preliminary data for 2008, and useful data for 2004, so I've created graphs for those two elections as well, and you can see some interesting drift from election to election.




(Blue = Conservative, Red = Liberal, Orange = NDP, Cyan = Bloc Québécois, Yellow = Other)

Notice the softening of the Bloc vote in each election as its clump of seats moves closer to the middle of the graph. Also note how in 2008, the NDP now seems to have some "front line" seats with the Conservatives and that its front with the Liberals is now sparser (as they appear to have captured the low-hanging fruit; the next seats will be a somewhat tougher slog). While the largest central clump of seats has shifted to the right (Liberal becoming Conservative), also note that there is some dispersion up towards the NDP on the Conservative side, giving the NDP its new aforementioned front.

There are two outliers in the 2008 graph. One is a bloc seat that had significant competition from the NDP, thus placing its marker just below the centre point. The other also involves the NDP, and also involves a seat in Quebec. However, this is the single Quebec seat that the NDP won. One of the hidden limitations of this graph is that when there is true competition between Bloc and NDP, you may get some outliers like this. Prior to 2008 this wouldn't have been a problem as the Bloc obviously had no presence outside Quebec, and the NDP had no effective presence inside it.

It's also worth noting that in 2008 the Conservatives did bulk up their heartland vote, with a much large clump appearing much further right than before. This doesn't help them win seats, but indicates that they are a political force that's going to be around for a while (most of these seats are (surprise!) in Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan. The Liberal party's few remaining die hard seats also got more die hard, which is an interesting effect.