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Election post mortem - Musings of Unayok — LiveJournal

2008 Oct 15

20:16Election post mortem 

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Well, my predictions weren't accurate. Such a shock!!! ( Actual (preliminary) results here. ) I'll probably do up an updated before/after version of my battle-lines graph soon as I get bulk reliable data.

Still, some of the reasoning behind my predictions were valid, even if the magnitude was wrong. My predictions of Green seats was thrown in for a laugh. I never really expected them to win any, though I did have specific ridings where they had distant hopes.

The Liberals cratering worse than expected in Ontario opened up opportunities for both the Conservatives and the NDP, though given the actual swings, I'm surprised the Conservatives didn't manage a couple more seats there.

The West and Atlantic Canada were broadly in line with my expectations; off by a couple of seats. Quebec was a little off; the Bloc got a better bounce off the culture issues than I expected.

All in all, this election was probably Stephen Harper's best chance for a majority for a very long time. A Liberal Party in some disarray under the lacklustre leadership of Stephane Dion. A complex split of vision on the environmental/socially-progressive side of the political spectrum, and a still (through inertia if nothing else) relatively healthy economic situation.

The economic situation is deteriorating (separate post on that, but it looks like $2.5T of co-ordinated support kept the markets up for a full day and a half!). It is quite likely that the Liberal party may be heading for a new leader (plenty of interesting speculation on that ahead, I think).

Another thing I seemed to notice is that during all the election celebrations at party headquarters and campaign headquarters around the country there was a distinct... lack of enthusiasm. No one really wanted this election (except Harper who obviously had his own motives). As Canadians, we mostly just suffered through it, revolting largely in favour of the status quo (punishing the Liberals for having a visibly weak leader).

And the sad part? We'll probably be back on the election trail in the next 18 months.