?

Log in

No account? Create an account

Predictions and more shininess. - Musings of Unayok

2008 Oct 13

22:16Predictions and more shininess. 

Previous Entry Share Next Entry
I've tinkered with the image a bit to show the proper party colours a bit better and to put in some error bars. These indicate what a 4% change in votes for the current party in any riding would look like. With that you can somewhat see what the point of the graph is. The seats stake out an area of control. If a given seat moves due to changes in the vote by party, it can end up in another party's area of control. 4% is shown. Of course, it could be much more, or rather less in a given constituency. I chose 4 as it seems reasonable based on how the poll numbers seem to be differing from the raw popular vote this time, and also it's close to the typical margin of error in most properly scientific polls.

As for my own predictions.... (drum roll)

PartySeats
Conservative/Conservateur135
Liberal/Libéral93
Bloc Québécois45
N.D.P/N.P.D.31
Green Party/Parti Vert3
Others/Autres1


How confident am I? Not much. This is all in fun.